Bushwalk Australia

why did 10 people die on Everest in 2012?

http://www.outsideonline.com/outdoor-ad ... umber.html

Because anybody with sufficient money, and no idea whatsoever, can give it a crack.

There will an element of bad luck, but I don't think it's too far of the mark to suggest there is an awful lot of people [ and not just 2012 ] who shouldn't be anywhere near that place.

Surprised to see in the photo such a long line of climbers going up at the same time. No longer an elite activity. No wonder people seeking the ultimate are starting to buy tickets for a ride to space.

some of the guiding outfits set too low or now fitness or experience benchmark on their clients... its the biggest earner of the year for a lot of guiding companies especially the locals...
there are only a handful of days where the weather is suitable to climb, the rest of the year theres too much snow and or wind or too cold.... when the good weather windows arrive its all on.... you can wait till most of the people have climbed and hope the good weather will come back again to let you climb later or you could miss out.

The biggest concern that I have about Everest is that the challenge of climbing the mountain is not as much in the technical ability, but is the ability to perform when your brain is able to function at a limited capacity.

This has only been amplified by the ease of which almost anyone can climb the mountain, permitting they have enough cash to pay the right guide.

Anyone can reduce the effects of edema by sucking down os, and with some very cool innovations in ultra lightweight insulated clothing on the way, its very possible that within the next 5 - 10 years, people will be able to summit with only a few layers of clothing. I believe that this gives people a false sense of safety on the mountain, and on a mountain where 300ft between you and the summit can mean life or death if you don't turn around, I can only foresee that more and more people are going to die on the mountain in the future, every year.

I actually thought the count this year was more than 10. What makes me very sad is that 4 of these deaths were sherpas.

edema won't necessarily be stopped by bottled oxygen.. oxygen only gains you back a thousand or so metres of air... the low air pressure at altitude is partly to blame, if you're not fit and healthy enough anyone can get edema , the older you get the more prone you are to it.... everest is as much about who has the money to climb it and often that tends to be older people... to a certain extent mid life crisis people. got the kids off their hands, topped out in their careers. got money to burn, limited active years left...
health not getting any better....

I thought cerebral oedema/altitude sickness does not correlate with fitness.

not entirely. but it doesnt help if you arent fit and acclimatised to altitude. thats a recipie for disaster

The thing is, though many people "attempt" Everest, less than one third are successful. And it's a hell of a lot of money just to join the queue!

by 2007

• Everest has been attempted 11000 times
• 3000 attempts have been successful (reached the summit)
• Success rate is 29%
• 207 climbers have died on Everest
• Fatality rate is 2.05%
• 54 of the summiteers died
• Summit to Fatality rate is 1.82%

Source: http://www.adventurestats.com/tables/Ev ... eFat.shtml

walkinTas wrote:The thing is, though many people "attempt" Everest, less than one third are successful. And it's a hell of a lot of money just to join the queue!

Ummm... Under our current social value, one can almost make a case at the ACCC for product "failure".

current success rate is higher in recent years, not sure how high on average, depends which company you go with, with more accurate weather forecasting and more streamlined organisation to get people to the top. go with the right company and you're more likely to summit than not... some companies you'd be unlucky not to make it most years... assuming you've got the fitness and some experience... something like one person dies now for every forty who summit.... and most of those who die in recent years are either old and or lacking in fitness and experience..

wayno wrote:current success rate is higher in recent years,

You're right, it was a 56% success rate in 2012 so things have improved a little, but the last two years have also seen 19 deaths. The graph shows the improvements in the last 20+ years. Edit: So, 2007 on, double the number of successes and another 35 deaths. And despite the apparently high number of deaths in 2012 it was in fact only 1% of climbers for that year.


Source: National Geographic

theres more people climbing today than ever who are less prepared and skilled to climb the mountain which is affecting the mortality statistics. if you're fit and experienced your chances of staying alive are better than ever...

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wayno wrote:theres more people climbing today than ever who are less prepared and skilled to climb the mountain which is affecting the mortality statistics. if you're fit and experienced your chances of staying alive are better than ever...

Yes but their equipment is 'streets ahead' of Tenzing's and Edmund's. Even of the unskilled.

How much does luck play in it?

icefest wrote:

wayno wrote:theres more people climbing today than ever who are less prepared and skilled to climb the mountain which is affecting the mortality statistics. if you're fit and experienced your chances of staying alive are better than ever...

Yes but their equipment is 'streets ahead' of Tenzing's and Edmund's. Even of the unskilled.

modern equipment hasnt saved any of the people who have died, it may be saving some people but the conditions up there are often too much for modern equipment to save you, if you dont get fit enough and you dont have enough experience in the mountains , modern equipment won't necessarily save you.

It's human nature to cut corners if you can, and I suspect that with more people climbing and achieving success that complacency will creep in. That's when you have a disaster and it's usually coupled with Mother Nature putting on one of her best renditions of hell!!!!!!!!. When this happens it won't mater what sort of down suit you had on its all luck.

its a case of a fair no of people not realising what they are getting into, they think paying a lot of money guarantees them a successful outcome...
there are some people with very little if any mountaineering experiencing who some companies are taking up everest, there are other companies who wouldnt let such inexperienced people on the mountain, they arent aclimatised properly or given enough training. they are more likely to spend longer at high altitude increasing their odds of having serious health issues.
HImalayan experience as an example prefers people who have summited a 25,000ft peak on a previous expedition before they will take them to everest.

I think it's more a case of only needing that experience and expertise when it all goes wrong. For the most part your just walking behind an experienced guide clipped to a fixed rope with your only care being how to take your next breath and how to lift your leg with a boot that feels like it weighs 10kgs. The only technical piece is the step. The big question would come if the weather closes in as can happen and fixed lines get damaged of broken. You then get people wandering all over a mountain with no knowledge of how to fix lines let alone have the equipment to do so, or rappel down a slope that has had a avalanche on it etc. This is when lots of people die, experienced and inexperienced.

There will always be people who die from just the climb, fitness, oedema, what ever. The big loss of life comes in those big events like what happened on K2.
Bad weather and lack of equipment to deal with the scenario kills when your that high up.

these people are often failing on fitness and often havent been to high altitude before, they get in way over their heads, their bodies cant cope with teh altitude , the lucky ones pull out early or have someone rescue them at an altitude where its still practical to effect a rescue, the unlucky ones get into serious trouble too high on the mountain for anyone to help and its up to them to save themselves and get back down under their own steam if they can

the other issue is their lack of experience even walking in crampons, on a rope. and on the rocky icy ground affects how fast tehy can move, they move slower than more experienced people, tehy spend longer at higher altitude and they are more prone to getting sick, and often their fitness isnt up to the mark, it makes for a deadly combination.

I agree wayno, it's all easy or as easy as climbing Everest can be on a blue bird day. All your equipment works, is clearly visible, communication is easy etc. All this stops in bad weather and unless every member of the team has the know how or the equipment to deal with it, problems start very quickly. If the team is not that strong then you find people start to do things they wouldn't normally do.

everest is never easy for the inexperienced, it takes time to build up teh coordinationa nd confidence to walk in such a high exposed place with all teh gear they require feeling like you're going to die, starved of air, exhausted from lack of sleep or being unable to much if any food, wind blowing you around, uneven steep ground,
for an exerpienecd person they can take it all in tehir stride but the unfamiliarity of the whole scenario for those without enough or any high altitude experience just makes the climb harder , slower and more tiring, they dont understand when they have shot their bolt, when they get hypoxic people just loose all reasoning and refuse to turn back till it's too late....
even with all the variables being perfect, it can still be a major mission,, it takes time to get the required fitness to remain functional at that level. crash course fitness programmes will be of limited use to get the real fitness required to desal with the lack of oxygen....

What I meant was, Look at the deaths each year in the last 20 years, and in the same time the amount of successful summits has skyrocketed.

And that's at the same time as the inexperienced people started trying...

icefest wrote:What I meant was, Look at the deaths each year in the last 20 years, and in the same time the amount of successful summits has skyrocketed.
And that's at the same time as the inexperienced people started trying...

Tourists are typically successful on established tourist routes. It's no longer an exploration, well, almost.

the last twenty years as been when commercial guiding operations have taken off, with the scenario of sherpas or professional guides taking a client up the mountain, in a lot of cases now one guide to one client or at least a sherpa to each client.... plus you had the advent of fixed ropes spreading up the mountain to the point now where there are fixed ropes right to the summit from both the north and south side.
its a totally different scenario climbing the mountain in recent decades compared to previous decades... plus the gear is lighter and safer and more reliable.
ed hillary didnt have down clothing, boots with lightweight materials. didnt have a harness. he carried 20 kilos to the summit, today you'll have around half that much weight.
but oxygen still only gives a modest advantage, not sure exactly but it only gives you back the performance of the air at about six or seven thousand metres, low air pressure prevents getting the full advantages.

Surprised they haven't started a heli service or a monorail...

nepalese authorities have just banned non emergency flights on the mountain due to the nicerasing no of flights, not sure but it could include base camp, too many flights to take clients in and out of the mountain.
weather forecasts are very accurate now, theres only a few days the weather and smow conditions permit climbing. but the ability to predict those days is high now, go back in time and there were no forecasts for the mountain, just generalised forecasts for the region,,, that was the issue in 96 when i think 14 people died in one storm.... storms arent killing people today, people are just dying because they arent fit enough, the odd one takes a fall into acrevase or gets crusshed in a crevasse field like the ice fall... or gets taken out by an avalanche...

Sounds like global warming should reduce the risks even further! Guide operators must be rubbing their hands.