Re: Calculating the economic logic of Covid 19 social distan
Posted: Tue 28 Apr, 2020 2:06 pm[quote="PedroArvy"]S
I have heard the economic value of a person is between 1.5-4 million. That’s the amount of economic value people create. Let's take an average of 2.75 million. Now make it 1/4 of that as people who die for CV have lived for ¾ of their lives.
/quote]
That may be true if and only if it is spread over the average working life of the "average" person.
Also most people don't work anywhere near as long as they used to because of the extended education and training needed to get a job in what is rapidly becoming a highly technological society.
So the costs of maintaining that person tor the 27 years between birth and first real job need to be accounted for first and I think that is where that figure $1.5M- comes from.
So there are 40 to 50 years of productive working life for the "average' person who works until they are unable to work any longer.
Although $4M- spread over a 50 year working life is only about $1800- a week
If they haven't saved enough money for a meaningful retirement then they become an secondary economic "burden" for however long it takes them to die.
Of course I am ignoring the social and economic benefits of grandparents [ which is huge but never calculated by governments] and only thinking of those people who are unfortunate enough to spend extended time in complete care, which hopefully is no longer than 3 months but can be in a worst case scenario as long as 20 years.
I can hypothesise many scenarios where it makes "economic" sense to simply allow old people to die off without treatment, just as I can think about scenarios where those same people are treasured and an allowance for their past benefit to society can be easily made.
I think I know where the current governments thinking lies. For myself I guess I vacillate between extremes constantly
I have heard the economic value of a person is between 1.5-4 million. That’s the amount of economic value people create. Let's take an average of 2.75 million. Now make it 1/4 of that as people who die for CV have lived for ¾ of their lives.
/quote]
That may be true if and only if it is spread over the average working life of the "average" person.
Also most people don't work anywhere near as long as they used to because of the extended education and training needed to get a job in what is rapidly becoming a highly technological society.
So the costs of maintaining that person tor the 27 years between birth and first real job need to be accounted for first and I think that is where that figure $1.5M- comes from.
So there are 40 to 50 years of productive working life for the "average' person who works until they are unable to work any longer.
Although $4M- spread over a 50 year working life is only about $1800- a week
If they haven't saved enough money for a meaningful retirement then they become an secondary economic "burden" for however long it takes them to die.
Of course I am ignoring the social and economic benefits of grandparents [ which is huge but never calculated by governments] and only thinking of those people who are unfortunate enough to spend extended time in complete care, which hopefully is no longer than 3 months but can be in a worst case scenario as long as 20 years.
I can hypothesise many scenarios where it makes "economic" sense to simply allow old people to die off without treatment, just as I can think about scenarios where those same people are treasured and an allowance for their past benefit to society can be easily made.
I think I know where the current governments thinking lies. For myself I guess I vacillate between extremes constantly