Fire alerts and track closures

[Strider]

The rain radar shows heavy falls through the area we need rain right now

With rain can also come lightning. Thirteen new fires were started in Tas by lightning today.

http://www.examiner.com.au/story/369425 ... lightning/

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[Thornbill]

Cradle has had 69mm since 9am Friday. That's got to be helpful. Looks like falls were decent accross that whole area yesterday.

[bumpingbill]

I found a webcam yesterday that's somewhere in the Cradle Valley. Hydro uses it to monitor snow fall levels.

It's looking a bit wetter today than yesterday:

http://www.hydro.com.au/system/files/wa ... MtSnow.jpg

[Nuts]

Unfortunately the heavier falls have been sporadic, haven't been nearly enough alone for the fires up there yet.

[grant evans]

We burn off at the paddocks annually in the spring. The timing of that burn however varies from year to year, depending on the season. Some times it can Be as late as early November, other years like the one just gone it was mid september. We had a beautiful burn, the surrounding area was wet enough that it did not carry into the bush. Parks had their burn organised over the river for three weeks later than ours, it was to dry by then and they called it off.

[north-north-west]

Parks had their burn organised over the river for three weeks later than ours, it was to dry by then and they called it off.

That's part of the problem. They need to have equipment and personnel organised ahead of schedule, but you can't rely on conditions being right on the day.
It's the old rock and a hard place situation.

[gayet]

SBS's weekend

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-30/fire-ravages-world-heritage-area-tasmania-central-plateau/7127300

This is what it looks like now.

[Hermione]

I have no words for this utter devastation. Please let there be something left.

[Overlandman]

I found a webcam yesterday that's somewhere in the Cradle Valley. Hydro uses it to monitor snow fall levels.

It's looking a bit wetter today than yesterday:

http://www.hydro.com.au/system/files/wa ... MtSnow.jpg

The camera is mounted on the day hut at Waldheim
Unfortunately there was no rain overnight up where it was needed



Regards OLM

[Giddy_up]

Just a disaster!!!! I have no knowledge, but do those plants in that ecosystem have no hope of recovery


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Last edited by Giddy_up on Sun 31 Jan, 2016 8:23 am, edited 1 time in total.

[bumpingbill]

The camera is mounted on the day hut at Waldheim
Unfortunately there was no rain overnight up where it was needed

Thanks for that. The other one they run at Lake McKenzie hasn't been updated since the 27th, which can't be good news.

[gayet]

Just a disaster!!!! I have no knowledge, but do those plants in that ecosystem have no hope of recovery

Many of the alpine plants have no defence against fire - fire was not part of the ecosystem they developed in. Pencil pines, cushion plants, king billy pines etc are very slow growing - VERY slow - and cannot recover. I believe earlier attempts at replanting after fires were not particularly successful, at least no more successful than natural germination of new plants. But the problem is the lack of defence against fire - the burnt trunks do not reshoot, there is no lignotuber to reshoot below ground, fire does not germinate seed, and the growth rate is very slow.

But I am not an expert.

[whynotwalk]

I wrote an (unfortunately) prophetic piece a few years ago. It tells a little of the pencil pine story, and might introduce these remarkable trees to those who don't know them. http://www.naturescribe.com/2010/01/walking-with-ada-2-great-pine-tears.html

While the long term prospects are not good, the fire maps indicate many area of pine and peat have not been touched by these latest fires. Maybe they're safe ... this time [CRYING FACE]

cheers

Peter


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[MrWalker]

I think we need to be careful when saying "complete and utter devastation", "everything is dead" or "no hope of recovery".

If this is true then there is clearly no valid objection to the burnt areas being taken over for mining, or maybe Forestry can plant some pines there.

The areas may be changed for a while, but they will recover, even if the original species are replaced by others.

Should we take the opportunity to improve access to unburnt areas that were previously inaccessible due to thick scrub by making tracks or roads through the burnt sections.

[Hermione]

I think we need to be careful when saying "complete and utter devastation", "everything is dead" or "no hope of recovery".

If this is true then there is clearly no valid objection to the burnt areas being taken over for mining, or maybe Forestry can plant some pines there.

The areas may be changed for a while, but they will recover, even if the original species are replaced by others.

Should we take the opportunity to improve access to unburnt areas that were previously inaccessible due to thick scrub by making tracks or roads through the burnt sections.

I know I totally agree even though I used the phrase myself after looking at the photos yesterday. I already considered the potential threat from mining but when I did see photos (even though I knew intellectually what it would like) my reaction was just visceral. I hope this fragile ecosystem doesn't have to contend with a further push from the mining industry after this.

[Thornbill]

From an ecological point of view, its going to be very interesting to see what succeeds these areas. Some form of alpine herb field or grassland perhaps?

[whynotwalk]

From an ecological point of view, its going to be very interesting to see what succeeds these areas. Some form of alpine herb field or grassland perhaps?

This photo shows a former pencil pine grove more than 50 years after a deliberately-lit and very intense fire. One or two pines are struggling on, but they are mostly being replaced by shrub species (sorry, can't recall exactly which). In other places there's the gradual march of fire-tolerant alpine eucalypts.

Yes, it will be "interesting" ... in a "watching-a-train-wreck" kind of a way,

cheers

Peter


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[aloftas]

Parks had their burn organised over the river for three weeks later than ours, it was to dry by then and they called it off.

That's part of the problem. They need to have equipment and personnel organised ahead of schedule, but you can't rely on conditions being right on the day.
It's the old rock and a hard place situation.

But, but, without wishing to oversimplify things entirely, couldn't this dry spell have been foreseen?

The wattles were well in bloom the weekend of the said burnoff....(I was there) and yes, there is now a green patch in the foothills of mt pelion, thanks to timeliness, foresight, planning and the ability to respond to variable setpoints


its like farming to a calender, or farming to a season.


to further posit the notion that farmers and parks are indistinguishable.

Back in the day fire breaks were disced in, paddocks were slashed, road verges slashed...

all mitigates the risk of lightening or arson

instead lighting it up on a power point presentation and ars ing about with calenders and ipads.

Fieldwork


*&^%$#@! on ground...


"oh we have a burn scheduled"

*flicks a match*


sings out


"look out, there is a fire coming"


perhaps some rething king of wyrlds best practices.

Too much dilly dallying about, in simple turns.


I run.

[aloftas]

This was at 4 in the afternoon

I was late. However, it is obvious, the burn in the distance is minimal, low flame, low impact fuel reduction.



I imagine it looks like and is, a safe refuge, providing feed and ecological habitat.

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[aloftas]

as I say, a good servant, terrible master


compare the picture above with the ashfields seen today

in the picture above, the thatch is still there, so all the biota critters are hiding

not in these fires today


so, its a weighted option, as always.


I know which method I prefer....

[aloftas]

again, one can see the gentle nature of the burn, and the remnant snow shows just how quickly the field capacity can fall below safe levels, not really surprising if one factors in an evapotranspiration rate of approx. 25+ mm per day.

That's 25 litres per square meter per day evaporation rate.

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[aloftas]

a broader view?

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[gayet]

Should we take the opportunity to improve access to unburnt areas that were previously inaccessible due to thick scrub by making tracks or roads through the burnt sections.

Certainly NOT. The last thing any vestiges of original habitat etc need is to drive a road, or even a walking track through it. The areas left need all the help they can get to remain viable, and that does not include driving or walking over them, leaving behind who knows what. Keep humans out and it may have a chance. We people have done enough damage through ignorance, neglect, willful destruction and selfishness.

[Nuts]

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[north-north-west]

aloftas:
All those photos are of lower areas. The main damage from the fires is up on the higher parts of the plateau, where the species are all alpine or immediate sub-alpine. As gayet has said, they are not adapted to fire. The do not regenerate, they do not regrow, they do not recover. They just die.
For that reason, you cannot do fuel reduction burns - a controlled burn would just destroy what it is supposed to save.

Whatever grows there now will not be the same ecosystems.

[aloftas]

aloftas:
All those photos are of lower areas. The main damage from the fires is up on the higher parts of the plateau, where the species are all alpine or immediate sub-alpine. As gayet has said, they are not adapted to fire. The do not regenerate, they do not regrow, they do not recover. They just die.
For that reason, you cannot do fuel reduction burns - a controlled burn would just destroy what it is supposed to save.

Whatever grows there now will not be the same ecosystems.

Yes NNW and I agree, it is a tragedy not yet of our full comprehension.

What I am saying, is what can be managed, should be managed.

If the surrounding areas have some partial control, this alone lessens the impact of any lightening, ember attack, the possibility of fire fronts.

I just feel that there is a somewhat lassiez faire ad hoc approach taken which has become far too sensitised and politicized.

Anyway, I hope we get more rain and some further insights into the actualities of managing this on what is a dwindling budget.

Peace NNW.

[north-north-west]

What I am saying, is what can be managed, should be managed.

If the surrounding areas have some partial control, this alone lessens the impact of any lightening, ember attack, the possibility of fire fronts

Agreed, but this comes back to what I said earlier about availability of resources.

There are limited areas that can be used as minor firebreaks through controlled burns. They are not easy to get at and the fires have to be very closely contained. This takes specialised equipment and a lot of boots on the ground. That isn't easy to arrange and it isn't cheap. And there are massive areas involved - the logistics would be a nightmare.

I'm not saying it shouldn't be done, or that it can't be done, just trying to point out that it isn't something that can be done without a great deal of difficulty. The financial costs alone mean doing it will have an impact on other programs.
Of course, until the political will is there, nothing is going to happen.

[DanShell]

Is there an up to date map online of where the fires have been exactly?

[aloftas]

What I am saying, is what can be managed, should be managed.

If the surrounding areas have some partial control, this alone lessens the impact of any lightening, ember attack, the possibility of fire fronts

Agreed, but this comes back to what I said earlier about availability of resources.

There are limited areas that can be used as minor firebreaks through controlled burns. They are not easy to get at and the fires have to be very closely contained. This takes specialised equipment and a lot of boots on the ground. That isn't easy to arrange and it isn't cheap. And there are massive areas involved - the logistics would be a nightmare.

I'm not saying it shouldn't be done, or that it can't be done, just trying to point out that it isn't something that can be done without a great deal of difficulty. The financial costs alone mean doing it will have an impact on other programs.
Of course, until the political will is there, nothing is going to happen.

praps there is enuff argy bargy in us to be a political force, if not a volunteer force as well, particularly in remediation of sensitive areas?

anyway...


rain dances still, are the order of the day

Cheers NNW

[teak]

Hello Dan, if you go to ListMap on the right-hand side you will see layers, click on that then add layer. in the next box scroll down to emergency management, click on incident feeds then add fire boundaries with green plus sign. zoom in to area required.