COVID-19 - General discussion

[GPSGuided]

As of Apr 7 these risks are much lower as transmission rates have slowed but, as an ICU nurse in a regional area: stay the *&%$#! home.

Concur on staying home advice.

I would warn however the apparent fall in case load are largely due to international travel restrictions, especially from the US and Europe in recent weeks. These were never going to be the major worries as they are quarantined. The real rate and risk lies with the community cases which are still rising. These are the real sparks that’ll light the fuel. When these don’t fall, we are kidding ourselves to think the risk have dropped.

[Gadgetgeek]

Not sure if this was brought up already, but it seems that this bug can be passed via everyone's favorite method! Yep, fecal oral! So more reasons to avoid campgrounds, as its always worth doing when the gastro bugs are out.
On the topic of numbers, from what I've seen our numbers are looking pretty good, but also hearing some speculate about the northern hemisphere getting a break with summer coming on. Now, I have no idea how wild of speculation that is, but it does make me wonder if we will see an upswing here as temps cool. I don't know that it will matter as much as Aussie houses tend to be more airy in general compared to most north american places. Its tempting to speculate, but also very dangerous.

[GPSGuided]

Not sure if this was brought up already, but it seems that this bug can be passed via everyone's favorite method! Yep, fecal oral! So more reasons to avoid campgrounds, as its always worth doing when the gastro bugs are out.
On the topic of numbers, from what I've seen our numbers are looking pretty good, but also hearing some speculate about the northern hemisphere getting a break with summer coming on. Now, I have no idea how wild of speculation that is, but it does make me wonder if we will see an upswing here as temps cool. I don't know that it will matter as much as Aussie houses tend to be more airy in general compared to most north american places. Its tempting to speculate, but also very dangerous.

Been following this virus very closely since mid Jan along with all the scientific data and various national responses. The faecal-oral route is a theoretical possibility but not demonstrated to this point. There was such demonstration in HK during the SARS outbreak but it was related to a particular fault in the sewage of the residential block, permitting air droplet and aerosol creation in the pipe work. Whilst there’s demonstration of viral particles in some patients, demonstration is needed as there are many other factors needed to effect transmission eg. Viability, dose of the virus. Far easier for the virus to jump by respiratory route. I don’t think bush camp toilet habits will generate aerosol or large droplet sprays. But never know and don’t have a habit of looking fellow campers.

To date, there’s no evidence of seasonal factors. It will spread aggressively, reaching Ro of 3.5 when there’s population density. With our approaching winter, enclosed room and indoor habitation are always perfect for any respiratory infection. As suggested, good or bad of our numbers will depend on our community spread situation, whether that get contained. Jury is still out and there are many worrying signs. Accepting the 200 odd likely COVID-19 positive cases from the crew of Ruby Princess will make our overall numbers look bad and a political concern for the govt, but it’s irrelevant in terms of our actual national situation. Accepting those 200 crew is humanitarian, will load up our healthcare system, but they won’t spread the virus as they’ll be under strict quarantine.

[FreeBird122020]

I wonder to what extent shutting the parks is about countering any instinctive reaction to run for the hills in times like these. Rushing the shops is obviously a real phenomenon. Getting oneself and one's family to a lower risk environment seems to me like another. If things get really bad in the cities, people will want to go to smaller towns. If you really have the wind up you, going bush with or without much experience could seem pretty good.

Tas has gone with a 2 week quarantine for arrivals from the 'mainland'. There have also been efforts to restrict city folk from heading out to their shacks.

This does not do much to explain why some beaches can be walked on, whilst others are off limits. I need empty beaches and natural scenery as much as anyone for my well being and see no harm in using local beaches for an easy fix. There is a lot of valid discontent with the sweeping closure of PWS reserves in Tas. With any luck local beaches will be re opened sooner than later to keep wilder types happy.

[Neo]

FreeBird I think you hit it with 'run to the hills'. It was happening or about to.

Hopefully in a couple of weeks/May some more activities will be permitted. No big gatherings but gyms and fitness classes will be beneficial. Return to takeaway only and have tables of two. Regular camping perhaps, thus bushwalks.

[Lamont]

I need empty beaches and natural scenery as much as anyone for my well being and see no harm in using local beaches for an easy fix.

Not sure what you are saying here? Everything else no, but beaches yes?

[Ms_Mudd]

Not sure if this was brought up already, but it seems that this bug can be passed via everyone's favorite method! Yep, fecal oral! So more reasons to avoid campgrounds, as its always worth doing when the gastro bugs are out.
.

Oh yes, it is transmissable via this method too. Going to a public toilet anywhere right now gives me the heebie jeebies, let alone a campground of any sort.
It's a sneaky mother flipper of a virus isn't it? In fact, in the limited studies so far (the fecal oral one particularly was out of Singapore from memory), the virus was found to be in the stools even when a nasopharyngeal swab was returning a negative result.

[ILUVSWTAS]

Well that can't be good for the developing countries that haven't had a full force outbreak yet.

Now that's interesting in itself. Is this simply a travelers flu that only affects the rich self righteous, or is an outbreak into the developing world inevitable and surely that would be very very bad. ?

[Walk_fat boy_walk]

Hopefully in a couple of weeks/May some more activities will be permitted. No big gatherings but gyms and fitness classes will be beneficial. Return to takeaway only and have tables of two. Regular camping perhaps, thus bushwalks.

Hopefully not. There is an inverse relationship between strictness and necessary duration of isolation measures (not to mention that if not strict enough the health system will be overwhelmed, with devastating human consequences). I'm amazed there are still people (especially among the generally learned bushwalking crowd) calling for relaxation of these measures. Personally I'd love to go bush and/or get to the gym but I'm resigned to sucking it up and bunkering down for as long as is necessary. We all need to be or it doesn't work.

Sent from my SM-G977B using Tapatalk

[Neo]

My thoughts just above were to a more sustainable lockdown, targeted at the higher risk actions and most vulnerable.
I'm not asking to be allowed to bushwalk.

Without snipers and bombs going off outside I can see people only putting up with staying home for so long. If there is mass compliance for six months or more we could end up an unhealthy nutcase indebted society.

[Gadgetgeek]

Since the popular cultural opinion seems to never pan out (people are decent far more than they are not) It makes me wonder who would be the most likely to run for the hills, and how long would they last before being in serious trouble. It seems to me that most of the heavily prepped folks would park out at home while the water and power are still working.
Here the beaches are closed, but still have to be patrolled, forcing the surf lifesavers to go rescue people who shouldn't be in the water. Its an impossible situation for those with a middle level of authority. As for people not putting up with being at home, its already slipping here. Today at the wollies was a normal day, and its not like everyone was prepping for big easter dinners. The local response is also not adequate to counter the rules fatigue, and since "we're not Brisbane" its concerning.

[rcaffin]

forcing the surf lifesavers to go rescue people who shouldn't be in the water.

I cannot for the life of me see why the lifesavers should be forced to do anything.
If some swimmers are stupid enough to defy the lockdown, than let them drown. It would benefit the gene pool.

Cheers
Roger

[Gadgetgeek]

Roger, All I can say is, I wouldn't want to be the person having to make that call. I can see your side of the question, and I don't disagree. They don't "have" to do anything, but they do have to be able to sleep at night. As it stands, the surfers are not minding the vastly cleared beaches, but of course that just lures in the swimmers. We have the same thing happen during every cyclone.

[Warin]

Where beaches are closed there may not be lifesavers. Well not ones looking at the sea but doing maintenance on equipment etc.

[andrewa]

Still thinking about how best to have a bushwalking / camping weekend at home!

A

[stry]

Where beaches are closed there may not be lifesavers. Well not ones looking at the sea but doing maintenance on equipment etc.

First world problem.

I don't recall ever swimming where there were lifesavers. Haven't spent much time on ocean front beaches though.

I am still here - obviously

[Heremeahappy1]

In Victoria we have a game that's designed for bushwalkers, to cure the Covid19 boredom of staying home. Stealth camping- You pay a $1652 entry fee and drive into the bush, go for a walk, camp and come home. If you aren't caught by Vicpol, you get your entry fee back.
Great planning and prep skills development and ups the ante for those who may have previously stealth camped.

[Lophophaps]

I'm aware of a number of places to camp where it is probably not allowed, well hidden from nearly all people. There are a few options.

Hidden tent.jpg (66.98 KiB) Viewed 16803 times

COVID-19 camping.png (467.94 KiB) Viewed 16803 times

[andrewa]

I love the hidden sheep tent! Wonderful.

[ChrisJHC]

COVID-19 camping.png

I don’t think this person gets the idea of stealth camping very well!

[Lophophaps]

I don’t think this person gets the idea of stealth camping very well!

Agree. The tent should blend in more. One such tent is in this picture, towards the left of the fence.

[johnf]

Not sure you're thinking about the maths in the right way. You might be able to use the logic above for yourself (or another specific person), but you need to multiply it out across the entire community.
Blue Mountains Police Rescue alone attended 900 jobs last year. I'm sure many of these were minor, but you get the idea. These factors compound quickly.

What John's maths have not taken into account is

I am quite sure my maths is fine. What this is all about is to reduce the amount of contact with other people overall across the entire community.
Not sure how each of you or others are isolating, but I would be in the proximity (usually >1.5m) of dozens of people a day and for 2nd degree proximity probably 1000s (wife works in supermarket)
Personally I just go for a walk everyday for exercise, probably go to the shop for food, and get takeaway 2-3 days a week to try to support the restaurants around here.

My observations of other people in the area indicate they are probably having a lot more contacts. In the streets around this area, the parking is tight (not so much now), I know most of the regular cars which have a resident sticker. I'd say there is about a 50% or more daily turnover, i.e. a car going out and coming back or maybe not coming back and a new car coming. So with all these restrictions that people are generally obeying, people are still going to visit friends or family, visiting or staying with partners they don't live with or whatever. Shops are walking distance here. Same about the people on the beaches almost all looked >1.5m apart but there was a lot of family groups and friends together. What you have to count is what they would be doing if they weren't at the beach. Probably inside spreading germs in a enclosed space.

Going for a bushwalk and taking my own food plus most locations would not need to get fuel I would definitely encounter less people. I don't know how many people would be going bushwalking to count up to 900 police rescue jobs but could be 1 million or so. So rather than just counting the 900 police contacts, you have to count what interactions those million people would otherwise be having if they weren't bushwalking. There might be an argument about not going to remote areas, but a couple of hours from Sydney, withing a return trip for fuel shouldn't be a big deal.

I do get it that is problematic to have exceptions, but I would hope that a wider range of outdoor activities are allowed soon.

[Walk_fat boy_walk]

I do get it that is problematic to have exceptions

Your preceding arguments re being sufficiently remote/isolated when hiking (setting aside the SAR risk argument), not needing fuel on the way etc. are valid, but this ^^^ overrides them all and reinforces why we should be walking within our local area for exercise purposes and nothing more. Most people on this site know what we're doing, a significant number are VERY experienced, but every person that reinterprets the rules for their own purposes because they "know what they're doing" contributes to an increased population-wide risk of the measures failing. Quite frankly it's a little selfish.

[Moondog55]

I don't really enjoy walking around the blocks in the semi industrial suburb I live in; but I can endure it.
Another month of this and I'll be so fat tho that I won't be able to walk at all, I seem to be snacking much more than usual and I know my snacking choices are bad food.

[johnf]

Quite frankly it's a little selfish.

I don't see how it could be selfish to undertake activities that lower the R0 of the nation. Everyone should be thinking what can I do that lowers the R0 of the community.

As you noticed I am aware that I don't want to do an activity that encourages others to do other things that might increase community interactions.

My point being that the policy should be changed, not to ignore the policy. I outline why I think activities such as overnight bushwalking, going to the beach etc reduces the R0 in the community compared to what they might otherwise be doing. I could be wrong, happy to hear opposing views, but it is a bit offensive to say I am being selfish for putting that view forward.

[Walk_fat boy_walk]

Quite frankly it's a little selfish.

, but it is a bit offensive to say I am being selfish for putting that view forward.

Ah yes, sorry wasn't intended as being directly applicable to you, but more generally to the attitude that the policy doesn't really apply to me because i'll make sure i'll do all the right things when acting in contravention of said policy. There's a lot of that going around at the moment... I've no doubt the policies have been rapidly enacted and as a result are probably wider reaching than they need to be, but that still doesn't mean exceptions are ok. Anyone who doesn't feel they need to comply is being selfish IMO.

[wildwanderer]

On a broader level (not specific to bushwalking) my perspective is we are going about this the wrong way.

The more we close parks and beaches the more people are congregating in the areas that remain open. My street is resembling the city to surf there is so many people walking/running along the footpath for exercise. My local beach is more crowded than its ever been. All these people walking/running past each other breathing in each other’s air (and not a few perspiring heavily!)

This is because the regular walking/running areas are closed, and many beaches are closed so people are moving to the areas that remain open.

Should they be staying in their house? There is an argument for that but then everyone gets fat/unhealthy with resulting increased hospital admissions.

So what’s a solution?

Why not put temporary fences around the popular beaches/parks and employ people at multiple entrances to count the people who are going in (and those that are leaving via a separate dedicated exit). Once it gets halfway full (accounting for social distancing), update that information on the council or state gov website. Once its ¾ full then advise people not to come as likely they will be turned away.

We have a lot of people out of work, I’m sure we could employ them to sit under a marquee and count people. And security guards to handle crowd control.

This way we can keep bondi beach etc and all the popular city/suburban walking routes open and not have overcrowding in the areas that haven’t been closed yet.

Last edited by wildwanderer on Wed 15 Apr, 2020 11:20 am, edited 1 time in total.

[Moondog55]

Another month at least I think.
I hope it isn't longer than another month to six weeks although somehow I don't think the ski fields will be open for business as usual unless we get an affordable and effective anti-viral ASAP, Ski accommodation is even closer that a cruise ship as far as person to person transmission is concerned.

[johnf]

Yeah, I'd say skiing is going to be out, even backcountry as you'd likely be congregating around the huts for cooking etc. Going solo in a tent when there isn't going to be anyone around would be a bit high risk for most of us.

[slparker]

@johnf
Bushwalking isn't the problem it is travelling from an area of higher proportion of infected to an area of lower proportion. You have already admitted that you risk of being infected is linked to the amount of people that you encounter daily - including a family member who works in retail and that risk is substantially greater then that of communities with very low numbers of infected (such as regional Vic, for example).

If you chose to go bushwalking you would be placing others at risk, not because of the activity itself, but, despite your self-assurance that nothing could go wrong; when travelling to the bush and then bushwalking, things do go wrong. Car breakdown, hitting a roo, spraining an ankle/knee/back when walking etc. this places others in the community at risk of infection from you. A focus of infection in a regional community can quickly overwhelm resources in a regional community.

The risk of bushwalking for you is less risk of infection, the risk to populations in which you travel is a higher risk of infection - patricularly in regions under-resourced to cope with high numbers of serious infection. So, yes that does constitute selfishness.