when to turn back

[wayno]

just nutting out some guidelines on deciding when to turn back on a trip
the following come to mind off the top of my head

keep in mind how long your group has to go to complete a walk.. can you realistically safely get to the end of your walk given the following:

1 how long you have remaining ,
2 how individuals feel now,
3 the rate at which the individudals energy is flagging
4 current weather
5 the way the weather is unfolding..
6 your ability to meet your deadline to finish by your alloted cutoff time.
7 the condition of individuals physical bodies and how sore they are and how the soreness and or injuries are progressing
8 physical barriers ie, roughness of the track, flooded rivers, windfall. avalanches..

[Tortoise]

Hi Wayno

I'd add the type of track or lack thereof. Lots of time can be lost if the track is hard to follow in places, if the surface is very rocky/tree roots etc, or if off-track, where some bits can be easy peasy, and other bits might be the 6hrs to go 1 km or less type of scrub - the latter obviously being extremely energy zapping as well.

[wayno]

thanks, I added that to point 8

[Moondog55]

Have you reached the "Point of no return"??

[wayno]

Have you reached the "Point of no return"??

some would say I reached that point a long long time ago....

[Tortoise]

Another thought:
Psychological condition of individuals - often more important than physical condition in a challenging situation

[wayno]

or "how big a wooses your group members are"

[izogi]

I like to feel pretty confident about getting to the next point of safety before getting out of reach of the previous one.

Of course, next point of safety could be the next place where it's likely to be reasonable to set up portable shelter.

[Mechanic-AL]

The'"point of no return"' deserves more discussion. In particular rising river levels. In most cases if rising river levels mean it is unsafe/unwise to proceed then it is most likely unwise to bactrack too. In that case the most common option is to simply sit it out and wait for conditions to improve. Does this mean that this should be option number one in most other scenarios as well? IE; sunburn, splinters, wet socks and a sweaty crutch.

[Lophophaps]

The'"point of no return"' deserves more discussion. In particular rising river levels. In most cases if rising river levels mean it is unsafe/unwise to proceed then it is most likely unwise to bactrack too. In that case the most common option is to simply sit it out and wait for conditions to improve.

Agree. Point 8 could include this aspect. There may be something behind the party that precludes easy or viable return. For example, a river may have risen so as to now be impassable, or a very hairy ascent would be dangerous descending. Sometimes it may not be a case of selecting the best option, but the least worst. Sometimes it may be necessary to play the percentages, selecting the option that has the best chance of success. I did this once, but only after a considerable amount of thought. It worked.

On more serious trips, especially those of longer duration, there's always a set of alternatives developed before the trip which can be quickly implemented if things come unstuck. Having alternatives already set up means that they can be more quickly adopted. However, it may be that the situation is outside the envisioned scenarios, requiring a decision to be made more or less on the spot.

Whilst I've never considered the eight points in a structured manner, they have always been in mind when making a decision. It probably comes down to experience, and just knowing what to do.

[Lindsay]

I have found myself in this situation only once. I had planned an 8 day solo walk from Mittagong to Katoomba. The first day was extremely hard going through thick scrub in the Nattai river valley. At dark I was still well short of my planned first night stopping place. In the morning I pressed on, however I had a rather nasty fall not long after setting out. Fortunately nothing appeared to be broken but I was very sore with a fair bit of skin scraped off, and I can tell you it gave me a bit of a scare. After some basic patching up I considered my situation. I had been planning this trip for a while, organised time off work and was really looking forward to it, but a realistic assessment showed that I had underestimated the thickness of the scrub and my rate of progress. I was carrying injuries that would only slow me further, and the bruising, stiffening up and more pain that was sure to manifest itself later on could well incapacitate me a long way from help should I press on. Also being less steady on my feet increased the risk of another fall.
On the other hand there was a fire trail a half day walk behind me, and I felt I should be able to make it that far at least. As it was I walked all the way back to Mittagong. By the time I was sat on the station waiting for the train I was really beginning to hurt, so I reckon I made the right choice.

[wayno]

great example of the decision making there that lead you to cut your trip short Lindsay....

[Lophophaps]

One April about 30 years ago I was on a solo walk on the Kosciuszko Main Range. I'd been out for about six days and the weather had not been kind for most of the trip, with much wetness. I had what I called the time metric blisters - a litre each. The blisters would on balance not get better, and were hurting quite a bit. I was camped on Twynum, and decided that it was no longer fun. I could have stayed put for a day but decided to bale out, walking to Guthega.

It was a good move, if not altogether for the right reason. Just after I left, the Main Range copped a blast, with a dump of about 30-50 cm of snow. My summer tent would have been unhappy with this.

[kanangra]

I am not good at turning back. I can't actually recall when I have ever done it. I suffer from a personality defect which means that the planned trip must be completed no matter what. Over the years this has caused me to be late out on occasions but fortunately never any serious problems. I may have mellowed with age but still tend to be pretty driven often walking past good camp sites because it is too early to stop only to end up in a dry camp in the middle of the scrub just as night is falling. Perhaps that is why over the years most of my walking buddies have fallen by the wayside and why I tend to walk alone mostly now?

K

[north-north-west]

I'm not unlike kanangra, except that as I've mellowed with age (stop laughing, I have - you never knew me in my hot-headed youth), I've learned that there are more important things than getting there no matter what.
Pulling the pin on the Weld trip when I fell and nearly broke the ribs is a case in point. I probably would have continued if I hadn't inadvertently (due to packing in haste) left the PLB behind - but it wouldn't have been wise.

You need to work out a formula similar to the standard cave divers' Rule of Thirds: One third of your gas supply for the inward trip, one third for the outward, and one third in reserve. Of course, there are a lot of other complications, but you have to start with a similar basis.

[Gadgetgeek]

I've pulled the plug on a couple of trips, one was a cave trip that I should have seen going bad much sooner, but trusted the guy leading.... I learned something important that trip. You might not be the only one thinking its going bad, but as long as you go with it, you might just be leading the rest of the pack. When I called it off, my cave buddy was very happy, as she was just following along, hoping someone would say it was okay to back out. I called it as I felt hypothermia starting to set in, and I wanted to be in a safe place to shiver, where we were turned out to be far more dangerous than we had been told, and a fall would probably have been very life threatening. As it turned out, my buddy was in much worse shape than I was by that point. I also learned to never trek with people with a pathologically high tolerance for risk. I would rather leave a group and go solo, than continue on with people that I felt were unsafe to be with, or who were going to take risks beyond what I felt were appropriate.


The other trip was a simple over-nighter, unfortunately it wasn't "planned" as such. The fearless leader from the previous adventure decided that we as a staff (30 or so random folks running a children's "camp") should walk to the "wilderness village" to stay the night. But thought it better to not tell anyone. 15 degree low, not enough sleeping bags, a couple cots, no snacks after the walk (and several people had missed dinner) So I broke the rules an went back to the main site for things like contact solution, toiletries, snacks. There were lots of unhappy folks in the morning. Nothing life threatening, and one of those stories that is not met with laughter several years later. It didn't help that the organizer was the only one to get a good nights sleep. I learned to be very careful on two counts, Be very honest about what you expect an event to be like, and two, don't assume you've planned for the correct adventure.

But the main thing is to make sure that you don't have a feedback loop going of "he thinks its okay so it must be" and the other guy thinking "he's still going, so we must be alright still"

As for the point of no return, its still important to make the mental switch from recreation mode to survival mode. Even if things have gone bad on the last quarter of the trip, and finishing is the best way out, its still important to not run yourself ragged out the edge in case something worse happens. There are lots of cases where people get into more trouble because they try to hurry that last little bit to get out faster. Or alternatively, thinking its almost over, so not taking steps to ensure safety, like getting wet, or braving bad weather thinking the car is just a few km away, and then spending another night out, but now being more in danger.